CALCULATION OF INITIALS OPTIMAL PRODUCTION CAPACITIES CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY ELEMENTS

Abstract

In diversification, an attractive variant constitutes the projection of ethanol plants due to all the advantages that this represents and a crucial element for this to be effective is the existence of cane as a fundamental raw material for the sugar industry and therefore the derived productions. To project the initials optimal capacity of the plant, uncertainty in the raw material was considered. Mathematical models of capacity in time are obtained, choosing those that best fit, being the linear the simplest for future calculations. The initial capacity the plant should have is determined, also the time at which the first extension and the capacity of the plant should be done, which allows, considering other criteria, to make decisions about what should be the capacity of an ethanol plant in response to the current and future availability of sugar cane. It is presented a general method that can be used considering other tax sugar companies in a province or a region.