UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROCESS INTEGRATION FOR THE BIOREFINERIES DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

This paper presents how the design approaches with high level of flexibility can reduce the additional costs of the strategies that apply overdesign factors to consider parameters with uncertainty that impact on the economic feasibility of a project.
The elements with associate uncertainties and that are important in the configurations of the process integration under a biorefinery scheme are: raw material, raw material technologies of conversion, and variety of products that can be obtained.
From the analysis it is obtained that in the raw materials and products with potentialities in a biorefinery scheme, there are external uncertainties such as availability, demands and prices in the market. Those external uncertainties can determine their impact on the biorefinery and also in the product prices we can find minimum and maximum limits that can be identified in intervals which should be considered for the project economic
evaluation and the sensibility analysis due to varied conditions.