PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE BIOFUELS PRODUCTION IN GUATEMALA

Abstract

The principal instrument used in this investigation is the method of prospective analysis adapting the methodology proposed by Michel Godet to analyze the economic, environmental, political, social and technological aspects involved in the production of bioethanol and biodiesel in Guatemala. Different techniques and statistical packages were also applied such as the SWOT matrix, the MIC-MAC, MACTOR, SMIC y el MULTIPOL methods which were used in the different phases of the prospective analysis method. As result obtained from the investigation the biofuel production is founding between the adapted and offensive strategy position. Afterwards, the key variables, the key strategies of the system, the most influential actors, the possible future event and the most favorable event proposed for the future by the experts were determined. In the final phase of the method, policies and strategic actions that would permit the sustainable development of biofuels production were proposed in order to achieve the desired future result in Guatemala.