UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT ALTERNATIVES FOR SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF XALATLACO (MEXICO)

Abstract

Introduction:
The life cycle analysis (LCA) is intended to be a quantitative tool to support decision making. The evaluation of uncertainties allows evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the estimates made. Monte Carlo Analysis is one of the most widely used methods to propagate uncertainty results.
Objective:
To know the uncertainty associated with the data and the models used to assess the impact on each category considered, according to the LCA methodology, for the management of Municipal Solid Waste in the Xalatlaco municipality, Mexico.
Materials and Methods:
In this study, an uncertainty analysis is carried out, using the Monte Carlo method, to evaluate the propagation of data uncertainty in the results of each impact category considered in the study and the comparison of the scenarios, to select the most convenient.
Results and Discussion:
The results show that the inventory data influence the results of each of the categories; however, the coefficients of variation are less than 25%. The comparison of the Base Scenario with the best option (Scenario 3), allows us to identify that in all the categories the results present lower impacts with respect to the Base Scenario except for ozone layer depletion.
Conclusions:
The importance of the uncertainty analysis in the Life Cycle Analysis as support in decision making is verified. The implementation of Scenario 3 is feasible.