TECHNOLOGICAL RISK INDEX FOR THE HOLISTIC EVALUATION OF RISK IN SCENARIOS PRONE TO MAJOR ACCIDENTS

Abstract

Industrialization has increased the generation of risk conditions associated with processes’ complexity and dynamics. This article aims to define a technological risk index that allows the holistic evaluation of risk in different scenarios, as support to the decision making of preventive actions planning. This index considers the probability of occurrence of the event, the eminent physical risk, and the aggravation of the probable impact given the territorial vulnerability. In those scenarios in which information is not available to determine vulnerability, the numerical data are replaced by experts’ opinion, and diffuse compensatory logic is applied in the processing of linguistic expressions, using the Fuzzy tree studio software. The index proposed allows the comparative analysis among areas, facilities and territories. The indexation achieved with this methodology facilitates the presentation of information and the decision-making process.